Smith favourite for Allan Border Medal

Steven Smith should cap off his remarkable summer by winning his first Allan Border Medal in Sydney on Tuesday night. Smith's major competition for the honour will come from David Warner, who has a chance of taking home the Test Player of the Year Award, although his lack of ODI impact over the year could cost him in the Allan Border Medal tally.

In a sign of the changing nature of Australia's teams, all the major categories are likely to have first-time winners, with Aaron Finch in the Twenty20 category the only past recipient considered a chance of taking the same prize again. Dominant figures from past years, including Michael Clarke, Shane Watson and Mitchell Johnson, are not in serious contention this time.

Smith's outstanding Test and one-day form during the voting period, from January 24, 2014 to January 10 this year, might give him the edge over Warner in the Allan Border Medal tally, although the results are likely to be close. It is not out of the question that Smith could sweep the three awards, but equally it is possible he could walk away empty-handed depending on which way votes fall in a few games.

The Test Player of the Year should be a close contest between Smith and Warner; Smith scored 1212 runs in the voting period and Warner made 1209. Warner struck seven centuries to Smith's five, but on two occasions Warner hit a hundred in each innings of a Test, which may limit his vote-getting potential.

However, Warner might be helped by collecting more votes than Smith in the three Tests that Australia lost throughout the year, to South Africa in Port Elizabeth and to Pakistan in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Their expected dominance of the category is a sign that Australia are relying heavily on two of the younger members of their Test top six after Clarke won the past three Test awards and Watson the one before that.

Johnson's 41 Test wickets at 24.90 during the voting period will likely earn him third position in the Test category, but it is hard to see him seriously threatening Smith and Warner for the award. The next rung of vote-getters is expected to comprise Ryan Harris, Chris Rogers and Nathan Lyon.

Smith is also a leading contender for the One-Day International Player of the Year title, although James Faulkner and Finch will be right at the top of the voting as well. Smith started a productive ODI period during the series against Pakistan in the UAE in October and finished with 541 runs at 49.18 in the voting period, compared to Finch's 647 at 43.13.

Smith earned three Man of the Match honours during the voting period, compared to one for Faulkner and none for Finch. Although he struck only 193 runs at 32.16, Faulkner was Australia's leading ODI wicket taker with 14 at 32.78, and his all-round efforts might give him hope of going one better after finishing second to George Bailey in the ODI category last year.

Finch was the Twenty20 Player of the Year last year and although he is likely to be in the top three again, Glenn Maxwell deserves to be the strong favourite in the T20 category. Maxwell was third behind Finch and Cameron White as Australia's leading T20 scorers during the voting period, and they might form the top three, but Maxwell's nine wickets at 23.88 should make him the winner.

In calculating the Allan Border Medal tally, Test votes are given a weighting of six, ODI votes a weighting of three and T20 votes a weighting of two. Johnson is the likely third place-getter behind Smith and Warner, although the amount of short-form cricket played could mean he is pushed by any of Maxwell, Faulkner or Finch.

Either Smith or Warner would be the tenth different winner of the Allan Border Medal since the inaugural ceremony in 2000, and at 25 Smith would be the second youngest after Clarke, who won his first medal at 23 in 2005. Johnson edged out Clarke last year after Clarke had won in 2013 and 2012, and Watson in 2011 and 2010.