Australia ponder Boxing Day XI

Australia are unlikely to take their winning XI from the Gabba in to the Boxing Day Test, with injuries and form complicating matters for Rod Marsh's selection panel. The most likely change is a straight swap of Ryan Harris for Mitchell Starc, but the hamstring injury sustained by Mitchell Marsh while bowling on the first day could also mean a forced change to the top six.

Harris missed the Brisbane Test due to a minor strain to his quadriceps and on Saturday he rated himself an 85-90% chance of returning in Melbourne. Marsh suffered a right hamstring injury and although he batted in both innings he was unable to bowl after sustaining the problem, and the selectors will need to decide whether to risk him on Boxing Day.

A squad for the Melbourne Test will be announced at 1pm Brisbane time on Sunday. David Warner is expected to be fine after being struck on the left thumb while batting in Australia's chase on Saturday, and Mitchell Marsh said after hitting the winning runs that he was hopeful he too would be available for his first Boxing Day Test.

"The hammy is not too bad," Marsh said. "It's pretty minor, so I'll hopefully be getting up for that Test match. We'll see what happens."

However, the fact that Marsh was off the field during India's second innings was a concern, and Australia would want him to be able to bowl if he was to play in Melbourne. Captain Steven Smith said Marsh would be assessed over the coming days.

"I haven't actually spoken to Davey yet," Smith said. "He's a tough little character so I'm sure he'll be pretty eager to get stuck in on Boxing Day. Mitch Marsh was struggling a little bit yesterday and was struggling a little bit with his running today as well. The physio and doctor will have a look at him over the next couple of days and make a decision where we need to go from there."

If Marsh is ruled out, the selectors will need to decide whether to replace him with another allrounder or rely on Shane Watson as the fifth bowler and move another specialist batsman into the side. Either way, it is not clear who would win a call-up.

Ed Cowan has struck four centuries this Sheffield Shield season and is the leading run scorer, but axing him was one of the first selection moves coach Darren Lehmann was part of after taking the reins for the 2013 Ashes. If Cowan was to play he would likely need to come in at No. 3, which would mean Watson moving down the order to No. 6.

Adam Voges has hit three Shield tons this summer but is 35, and the selectors would probably be more inclined to opt for a younger batsman. Callum Ferguson, 30, has made two hundreds this Shield season and since the start of the 2012-13 summer has scored 1801 first-class runs at 47.39, and could be a possibility. Queensland's Joe Burns is also highly regarded.

Alex Doolan has struggled in the Shield since being dropped from the Test team in the UAE and has only 116 runs at 16.57 this summer. If the selectors wanted another allrounder they could go for James Faulkner, but despite a first-class average of 31.91 he is yet to score a first-class century and playing him in the top six would seem improbable.

The idea of moving wicketkeeper Brad Haddin up to No. 6 might have been palatable last summer when he was in outstanding form, but since the Ashes he has scored only 92 Test runs at 8.36 from seven matches. Haddin claimed nine dismissals behind the stumps in the Gabba victory and his place in the side is not in danger, but in his current batting form strengthening the top six would seem important.

Shaun Marsh managed 32 and 17 from his two innings in Brisbane, while Watson's 25 and 0 could mean the pressure builds on him during the remainder of the series. Opener Chris Rogers made 55 in each innings to ensure he will stay in the team for the immediate future, and the speed of his scoring in the small chase - his half-century came from 50 balls - was critical to getting Australia home.

Six wickets were lost in the chase of 128 and top-order problems in the first innings were masked by a match-saving partnership between Smith and Mitchell Johnson, and then further swinging from the tail-enders. One of those was Starc, who scored 52 but struggled for impact with the ball and received a tepid assessment from his captain.

"When he's on, he's a very good bowler," Smith said of Starc. "I think for him it's about finding that happy medium, I guess, where he gets his line and length right but still bowls it at a good pace. I think sometimes he might try a little bit too hard and sometimes he might just kind of put it there. I think he needs to find a happy medium where he can get a little bit of both and help build a bit of pressure, particularly on wickets like this one out here."

Smith will lead Australia on Boxing Day with, almost definitely a different XI, but with a 2-0 advantage in the series. He said given Australia's struggles on the first day, when Marsh was injured and Starc and Josh Hazlewood battled the heat, cramps and soreness, recovering to win his first Test as captain was pleasing.

"Extremely satisfying," he said of the comeback. "It was a very tough first day. The way the boys came out and bowled on the second morning was outstanding ... Nathan Lyon will pull the boys together and sing the song, I'm looking forward to doing that after another Test win for Australia."